Market turbulence to weigh on growth in 2019
· The significant tightening in US financial conditions since October is expected to weigh on US growth over 2019.
· A partial US government shutdown and slowing global growth add to the headwinds.
· While growth may move modestly below trend for a period, recession fears are overblown.
· One consequence is that the Fed is likely to be on hold for the rest of the year.