Watching the labour market and wages Incoming data continues to sit comfortably with the tenor and direction of our economic forecasts. Overall, we are quietly confident that improving prospects for infrastructure construction and non-mining business investment will help sustain economic growth at a steady (but moderate) rate, despite some…
Changing of the guard – what does China’s new leadership mean for its economy? In mid-October, China’s Communist Party held its 19th National Congress – a quinquennial meeting of the party that determines the key strategic direction for the country. Odd numbered meetings – such as this year –…
A GUIDE TO HELICOPTER MONEY With some commentators seeing existing monetary policy tools as either being exhausted or ineffective, there has been speculation that the next ‘unconventional’ tool to be deployed by central banks will be ‘Helicopter Money’. Helicopter Money typically refers to the central bank sending money to households…
In a surprise move to many analysts, the RBA today cut interest rates by 0.25% to 2.75%, a record low for Australia. The Board previously noted that the inflation outlook would afford scope to ease rates further. With inflation being a little lower than expected, Glenn Stevens, RBA Governor, in…
Australian Outlook Stronger official data for employment and retail trade, a stronger stock market and the resumption of house price growth appear to some to be the ‘green shoots’ of a strengthening domestic economy. However, this may be premature. A range of forward indicators continue to point to a sluggish…
The Australian dollar climbed sharply last week after the RBA left interest rates on hold and indicated it is unlikely to cut rates in the near future. As predicted by the majority of economists, the Reserve Bank kept the benchmark cash-rate target at 3 per cent, a low previously reached…
The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe that there is a risk of a decline in…
National house prices fell by 0.6% in the 4th quarter of 2012, with prices falling in all states except Western Australia, which grew by 0.4%. Victoria had the biggest fall in prices (-0.9%). NAB’s modelling indicates that average house prices will grow by around 1.5% by year end and by…
Business confidence improved considerably in December, after deteriorating to its weakest level since April 2009 in the previous month. There was relief from the last minute agreement for the US to delay the “fiscal cliff”, and the signs of a strengthening Chinese economy have helped. This together with the RBA…
Australia’s online retail sales are continuing to climb, up to A$12.3 billion in the year ended October 2012, but fornow the share of total spending is still modest, at around 5.6%. The rate of growth in online sales has strengthened considerably over the last six months, following something of a…
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