Troy Phillips

Housing market sentiment buoyed by growing rents as prices slow, but confidence slips as expectations for price growth scaled back. Early signs foreign buyers may be returning to the market, while interest rates weigh more heavily on local homebuyers. NAB’s outlook for dwelling prices is broadly unchanged – we still…

WELLBEING ROSE IN Q4 TO LEVELS LAST SEEN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC & HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL STRESS REMAINS WELL BELOW THE SURVEY AVERAGE. AUSTRALIANS ARE TRYING TO SAVE BUT ARE BEING CHALLENGED BY DEBT REPAYMENTS, BILLS & EVERYDAY EXPENSES. 1 IN 5 MISSED A BILL OR LOAN PAYMENT IN Q4. The NAB…

Commercial property market sentiment is still negative but continuing the slow recovery from the COVID-induced downturn in mid-2020. The NAB Commercial Property Index lifted for the fourth straight quarter in Q2, but is still negative (-7 pts), after falling to -62 pts one year ago. It should be noted the…

The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, as well as the re-introduction of mobility restrictions to bring it back under control, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. The Euro-zone economy went backwards in Q4, as did the UK’s in…

The recovery from the pandemic-driven recession is well underway across all states and territories, although COVID-19 outbreaks continue to disrupt state economies as they arise. Assuming a successful vaccination program and continued fiscal and monetary policy support, and despite all the considerable uncertainties, we are expecting a strong recovery over…

A strong rebound as confidence improves Overview NAB upgraded our forecasts two weeks ago to expect a stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment. Driving our change in view has been the continued strength in NAB’s transactional data and the solid turnaround in business conditions and…

Trade disputes continue to cast a shadow over the US economic outlook. While recent data suggest some upside risk to our Q2 GDP forecast, business surveys point to a slowing economy. The Fed is getting ready to cut rates; we expect two 25bp reductions in the federal funds rate, with…

Market turbulence to weigh on growth in 2019   ·        The significant tightening in US financial conditions since October is expected to weigh on US growth over 2019.   ·        A partial US government shutdown and slowing global growth add to the headwinds.   ·        While growth may move modestly…

A healthy growth outlook but some concerns about the consumer   ·        The economy grew at a strong pace over the first half of 2018 – with output expanding by over 4% in annualised terms. Looking forward, we expect growth to slow in annual terms, though still at a pace…