Watching the labour market and wages Incoming data continues to sit comfortably with the tenor and direction of our economic forecasts. Overall, we are quietly confident that improving prospects for infrastructure construction and non-mining business investment will help sustain economic growth at a steady (but moderate) rate, despite some…
A GUIDE TO HELICOPTER MONEY With some commentators seeing existing monetary policy tools as either being exhausted or ineffective, there has been speculation that the next ‘unconventional’ tool to be deployed by central banks will be ‘Helicopter Money’. Helicopter Money typically refers to the central bank sending money to households…
Australian Outlook Stronger official data for employment and retail trade, a stronger stock market and the resumption of house price growth appear to some to be the ‘green shoots’ of a strengthening domestic economy. However, this may be premature. A range of forward indicators continue to point to a sluggish…
The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe that there is a risk of a decline in…
Australia: The Australian economy appears to have stumbled into Q4. Growth outlook is unchanged; GDP forecasts 2.3% in 2012-13 (below Commonwealth Treasury and RBA’s 3%) and 3.0% in 2013-14 (in line with Treasury’s 3% and RBA’s 2¼-3¼%). Weighing on near-term activity will be slowing mining investment, a still high AUD,…

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