Overview Fears around the US banking sector have eased since mid-May, with central banks’ focus returning to inflation (around 6.3% yoy in April) that remains well above target ranges. The ECB hiked in June, and while the US Fed paused, both banks are likely to increase rates in July. While...
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Keypoints Following the RBA’s decision to lift rates to 4.1% at the June meeting, we upped our rate call to 4.35% by August. We are now tentatively adding an additional 25bp increase, taking the cash rate to 4.6%. Timing is less certain, and we pencil in 25bp increases for July...
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NAB Behavioural & Industry Economics The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average. The improvement largely reflected booming conditions in Industrial property markets, as conditions weakened for both Office and Retail property. With interest rates continuing to climb,...
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A solid outcome to round out 2022 NAB Group Economics Overview NAB sees a 0.8% q/q (2.8% y/y) GDP print for Q4 2022. Household spending looks to have remained resilient to rising rates and inflation. In part, this reflects the ongoing recovery in services spending. Elsewhere, investment looks to have...
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Global We now forecast the global economy to expand by 3.0% in 2022 (down from 3.2% previously) before slowing to 2.5% in 2023 (was 2.9%). Several advanced economies are at heightened risk of recession. Tighter financial conditions and the fallout from the Ukraine-Russia conflict (including for European energy supply) are…
Global Major central banks continue to tighten monetary policy in response to the highest inflation in decades, thereby straining household finances and leading to falls in asset prices. The duration and severity of the Russia-Ukraine conflict remains uncertain – negatively impacting energy and agricultural markets with the latter having the…
Housing market sentiment buoyed by growing rents as prices slow, but confidence slips as expectations for price growth scaled back. Early signs foreign buyers may be returning to the market, while interest rates weigh more heavily on local homebuyers. NAB’s outlook for dwelling prices is broadly unchanged – we still…
WELLBEING ROSE IN Q4 TO LEVELS LAST SEEN BEFORE THE PANDEMIC & HOUSEHOLD FINANCIAL STRESS REMAINS WELL BELOW THE SURVEY AVERAGE. AUSTRALIANS ARE TRYING TO SAVE BUT ARE BEING CHALLENGED BY DEBT REPAYMENTS, BILLS & EVERYDAY EXPENSES. 1 IN 5 MISSED A BILL OR LOAN PAYMENT IN Q4. The NAB…
1 in 5 Australians believe lockdowns have had a very negative impact on their mental health Over 7 in 10 Australians support vaccinated people having more freedoms than non-vaccinated Lockdowns have been a key public health measure to reduce the spread of COVID in Australia. While there is ample evidence…
Commercial property market sentiment is still negative but continuing the slow recovery from the COVID-induced downturn in mid-2020. The NAB Commercial Property Index lifted for the fourth straight quarter in Q2, but is still negative (-7 pts), after falling to -62 pts one year ago. It should be noted the…
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