The resurgence of COVID-19 in many parts of the world towards the end of 2020, as well as the re-introduction of mobility restrictions to bring it back under control, has had a negative impact on the global recovery. The Euro-zone economy went backwards in Q4, as did the UK’s in…
The recovery from the pandemic-driven recession is well underway across all states and territories, although COVID-19 outbreaks continue to disrupt state economies as they arise. Assuming a successful vaccination program and continued fiscal and monetary policy support, and despite all the considerable uncertainties, we are expecting a strong recovery over…
A strong rebound as confidence improves Overview NAB upgraded our forecasts two weeks ago to expect a stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment. Driving our change in view has been the continued strength in NAB’s transactional data and the solid turnaround in business conditions and…
Trade disputes continue to cast a shadow over the US economic outlook. While recent data suggest some upside risk to our Q2 GDP forecast, business surveys point to a slowing economy. The Fed is getting ready to cut rates; we expect two 25bp reductions in the federal funds rate, with…
Market turbulence to weigh on growth in 2019 · The significant tightening in US financial conditions since October is expected to weigh on US growth over 2019. · A partial US government shutdown and slowing global growth add to the headwinds. · While growth may move modestly…
A healthy growth outlook but some concerns about the consumer · The economy grew at a strong pace over the first half of 2018 – with output expanding by over 4% in annualised terms. Looking forward, we expect growth to slow in annual terms, though still at a pace…
Current market sentiment among property professionals dips to a 7-year low and confidence collapses as weakening house prices in NSW and Victoria weigh heavily on the market. NAB’s view is the orderly correction in house prices will continue over the next 18-24 months, driven mainly by Sydney and Melbourne,…
Watching the labour market and wages Incoming data continues to sit comfortably with the tenor and direction of our economic forecasts. Overall, we are quietly confident that improving prospects for infrastructure construction and non-mining business investment will help sustain economic growth at a steady (but moderate) rate, despite some…
Changing of the guard – what does China’s new leadership mean for its economy? In mid-October, China’s Communist Party held its 19th National Congress – a quinquennial meeting of the party that determines the key strategic direction for the country. Odd numbered meetings – such as this year –…
A GUIDE TO HELICOPTER MONEY With some commentators seeing existing monetary policy tools as either being exhausted or ineffective, there has been speculation that the next ‘unconventional’ tool to be deployed by central banks will be ‘Helicopter Money’. Helicopter Money typically refers to the central bank sending money to households…
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