Overview We continue to see an environment of subdued activity in the near term with the RBA set to keep the cash rate on hold at 4.35% until November 2024. We expect the upcoming National Accounts release to show GDP growth of 1.4% y/y for 2023 – materially below trend...
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Key points We now expect the RBA to remain on hold at the February meeting, with the current cash rate of 4.35% now expected to be the peak. The RBA is then expected to remain on hold until November, before gradually cutting rates by 125bps bythe end of 2025 taking...
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Global Economic Outlook Improved inflation trends have boosted hopes of monetary policy easing in 2024, with advanced economy prices in October rising at their slowest pace since July 2021. There was a wide divergence in growth among major advanced economies in Q3 – with strength in the US in contrast...
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Key Points On a month-on-month, seasonally adjusted basis, growth accelerated in October (3.3%), following on from a significantly revised September estimate (0.7%, was 2.9%). In year-on-year terms, growth accelerated again in October (9.6% y/y), albeit on a downward revision to the September estimate. Broad-based growth in October by category, with...
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Overview NAB Economics · NAB Economics Forecast Update - October 2023 Our forecasts are unchanged this month with official data, the NAB business survey and our internal transactions data all pointing to ongoing resilience in aggregate. • That said, with the ongoing pass through of higher rates and inflation still...
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Overview • Upwards revisions to past data for household income and profits, as well as partial data pointing to strong growth in Q3, see us revise up our outlook for GDP growth out to mid-2024. • For the full year, we see GDP growth of 2.3% (from 2.1%) in 2023...
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Overview With inflation moderating more than expected in Q2 and further evidence of activity slowing, we now see only one more rise in the cash rate, taking the peak to 4.35% – most likely in November. Our forecasts for GDP growth have strengthened marginally, reflecting stronger Q2 exports, but we...
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Overview Fears around the US banking sector have eased since mid-May, with central banks’ focus returning to inflation (around 6.3% yoy in April) that remains well above target ranges. The ECB hiked in June, and while the US Fed paused, both banks are likely to increase rates in July. While...
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Keypoints Following the RBA’s decision to lift rates to 4.1% at the June meeting, we upped our rate call to 4.35% by August. We are now tentatively adding an additional 25bp increase, taking the cash rate to 4.6%. Timing is less certain, and we pencil in 25bp increases for July...
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NAB Behavioural & Industry Economics The NAB Commercial Property Index improved in Q4, but is still negative overall and trending well below the survey average. The improvement largely reflected booming conditions in Industrial property markets, as conditions weakened for both Office and Retail property. With interest rates continuing to climb,...
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