The recovery from the pandemic-driven recession is well underway across all states and territories, although COVID-19 outbreaks continue to disrupt state economies as they arise. Assuming a successful vaccination program and continued fiscal and monetary policy support, and despite all the considerable uncertainties, we are expecting a strong recovery over…
A strong rebound as confidence improves Overview NAB upgraded our forecasts two weeks ago to expect a stronger near-term recovery in activity and a lower peak in unemployment. Driving our change in view has been the continued strength in NAB’s transactional data and the solid turnaround in business conditions and…
Trade disputes continue to cast a shadow over the US economic outlook. While recent data suggest some upside risk to our Q2 GDP forecast, business surveys point to a slowing economy. The Fed is getting ready to cut rates; we expect two 25bp reductions in the federal funds rate, with…
Market turbulence to weigh on growth in 2019 · The significant tightening in US financial conditions since October is expected to weigh on US growth over 2019. · A partial US government shutdown and slowing global growth add to the headwinds. · While growth may move modestly…
A healthy growth outlook but some concerns about the consumer · The economy grew at a strong pace over the first half of 2018 – with output expanding by over 4% in annualised terms. Looking forward, we expect growth to slow in annual terms, though still at a pace…
Current market sentiment among property professionals dips to a 7-year low and confidence collapses as weakening house prices in NSW and Victoria weigh heavily on the market. NAB’s view is the orderly correction in house prices will continue over the next 18-24 months, driven mainly by Sydney and Melbourne,…
Watching the labour market and wages Incoming data continues to sit comfortably with the tenor and direction of our economic forecasts. Overall, we are quietly confident that improving prospects for infrastructure construction and non-mining business investment will help sustain economic growth at a steady (but moderate) rate, despite some…
A GUIDE TO HELICOPTER MONEY With some commentators seeing existing monetary policy tools as either being exhausted or ineffective, there has been speculation that the next ‘unconventional’ tool to be deployed by central banks will be ‘Helicopter Money’. Helicopter Money typically refers to the central bank sending money to households…
Australian Outlook Stronger official data for employment and retail trade, a stronger stock market and the resumption of house price growth appear to some to be the ‘green shoots’ of a strengthening domestic economy. However, this may be premature. A range of forward indicators continue to point to a sluggish…
The recent capex and exploration expectations data suggest that mining investment may be approaching a turning point. A decline is inevitable: the question is when and how fast. On the basis of past engineering construction commencements, there are reasons to believe that there is a risk of a decline in…
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